The fair price of Ethereum is $5,300, by 2030 the asset may rise in price to $11,800. VanEck received such estimates after adding the scenario of using cryptocurrency as an alternative to US government bonds to the model.
The reason for the change in methodology was the Shapella hard fork, which allowed Ethereum to be withdrawn from staking.
In their calculations, analysts proceeded from the assumption that the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization will occupy 70% of the smart contract platform market.
This will be possible thanks to Ethereum’s status as the dominant open source global settlement network that hosts a significant portion of the commercial activity with the greatest potential to benefit from its transfer to the blockchain.
The optimistic scenario assumes an asset value of $51,006 by 2030 and its current fair value of $23,072. In the pessimistic scenario, the figures correspond to $343.3 and $155.3.
The differences stem from discrepancies in projected estimates of the share of economic activity of each business category that will be more or less associated with smart contract platforms like Ethereum. This, in turn, is derived from the pace of blockchain adoption.
Experts have identified the following areas:
- finance, banking and payments (FBP);
- metaverses, social networks and games (MSG);
- infrastructure (I).
FBP covers financial activities, including consumer and business
payments, banking services and exchange of value.
MSG includes software and internet businesses that revolve around online social networking, information gathering, gaming, and value creation in the virtual world.
I includes the provision of cloud computing, server space and distributed storage, as well as telecommunications and the Internet.
The components of the fair value model were transaction fees minus withdrawn coins, MEV, as well as Security as a Service.
Conceptually, the value of Ethereum can be used both inside and outside the network to secure applications, protocols and ecosystems.
Using projects like Eigenlayer, coins can be used to support things like oracles, sequencers, validators, bridges, contract agreements, and possibly new things yet to be discovered, the experts said.
Recall that experts interviewed by ForkLog agreed that in the long term, the hard fork will lead to positive dynamics in the Ethereum exchange rate by reducing risks for investors.
Earlier, the exchange balances of the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization approached record lows.
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