Home Economy US GDP declined for the second quarter in a row // Monitoring...

US GDP declined for the second quarter in a row // Monitoring of the world economy


US GDP in the second quarter fell by 0.9% year on year, the US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis reported yesterday. This is worse than the forecasts of most analysts who expected at least a minimal increase. Let’s be clear: the US indicator shows how much the size of the economy would shrink in a year if it declined at the same pace every quarter. In a different comparison – “quarter to quarter” – the decrease was only 0.2%, while comparing “year to year” US GDP, on the contrary, showed an increase of 1.6%. Since the fall in GDP was also recorded in the first quarter, many analysts they talk about a technical recession (reduction of the indicator for two quarters in a row). This, in particular, is indicated by the GDPNow forecasting model of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. In the US Department of Commerce, the decline in GDP in the second quarter is explained by a reduction in private investment in inventories due to a decrease in retail trade, a fall in investment in real estate and government spending. The situation with US GDP looks ambiguous … .

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