Three scenarios for the development of the global economy after the CoViD-19 pandemic


    The manager of the Astana MFC Kairat Kelimbetov spoke about three possible forks in the development of the global economy. His words are quoted by RIA Novosti.

    First of all, it is a course toward self-sufficiency and self-isolation. And many countries with large and self-sufficient economies, large populations can choose this course, ”Kelimbetov said, citing the United States as an example.

    He noted that the response to the coronavirus infection pandemic will be an increase in protectionism and a tendency to strengthen states. Even the European Union has suffered because of the trend for self-isolation, the expert said.

    The second scenario is large-scale support of banks and enterprises at the national level. A similar scheme was used after the crisis of 2008–2010.

    Kelimbetov believes that the full use of the economic potential of countries is an important direction of development.

    According to the head of the MFC, this involves the use of reserves, attracting direct investment and international liquidity.

    However, such paths will become a problem for some countries, including Russia and Kazakhstan, as they have set their sights on isolation and import substitution. However, the creation of trading blocks and occupying a certain place in them is the third scenario.

    The world can share in macro-regions in which a certain trade block will dominate. In this case, the role of financial systems that will interface these regions with each other will come to the fore.

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