Lawyer Jeremy Hogan named the main ways of development of the trial SEC against Ripple and allowed its completion in 2027.
I’m seeing some confusion as to what could happen next in the Ripple v. SEC case now that the Judge denied an interlocutory appeal.
Sooo, I have outlined every possibility and provided the exact chance of each possibility happening and how long each would take. Exactly.
— Jeremy Hogan (@attorneyjeremy1) October 8, 2023
According to the lawyer, the regulator does not have “really good options” on the way to making a final judgment.
In July 2023, the Southern District of New York court concluded that programmatic sales and other token distributions do not constitute the offer and implementation of investment contracts. The SEC then filed an interlocutory appeal, which the judge rejected.
Hogan therefore suggested that there was a 39.5% chance that the Commission would continue proceedings against the individual defendants in April 2024.
This means an appeal decision will likely not be issued until 2026. Even if the SEC receives a favorable decision on the petition, the case will be returned to Judge Analisa Torres for further consideration.
The most likely final date for consideration in this situation appears to be June 14, 2027, the lawyer believes.
He considers the second possible course of action for the SEC to be settling claims against individual defendants and filing an appeal of the Ripple decision. Hogan estimated the chances of such a decision at 32.1%.
“This is the best option for the SEC. For this reason, I doubt that they will do so,” the lawyer said.
With this option, the process will still continue “for months and months,” but could end on August 14, 2026, the lawyer noted.
The commission may also agree to settle the proceedings with all defendants. Hogan called this a good option for the SEC, which can report another victory over the “bad guys” and get a “big check” from them.
However, despite the court decision clearing the way for the regulator, it has shown no inclination to compromise, Hogan said. Therefore, the lawyer estimated the likelihood of such a decision by the Commission at 19%.
“Finally, there might be something else going on that I haven’t thought of. Who knows. The chances here are 8.7%,” the lawyer concluded.
Let us remember that one of the defendants, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, called the SEC’s arguments in the case “absurd.”
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