The lawyer estimated the probability of SEC victory in the Ripple case at 3%


The probability of “total victory” SEC in a lawsuit against Ripple is only 3%, according to lawyer John Deaton.

During The Good Morning Crypto podcast, the founder of law firm CryptoLaw estimated the chances of a positive verdict for Ripple at 25%. In his opinion, there is also a 50% chance that the fintech firm will win a partial victory.

In this case, the judge recognizes that the XRP token was a security prior to 2018. Given the presence of the text of the speech of the ex-SEC employee William Hinman, the coin can receive the status of a commodity.

“I think that XRP itself is not recognized as a security, and sales in the secondary market confirm my opinion. Even [судья] will rule that Ripple violated the law, this will not apply to the secondary market, ”Deaton explained.

The lawyer gave a forecast regarding the price of the token after a positive decision. In his opinion, the exchange rate from $2 to $10 is “fair”.

According to CoinGecko, XRP is trading at $0.5334 at the time of writing, up 1.5% on the day.

Hourly XRP/USDT chart on Binance exchange. Data: Trading View.

In December 2020, the SEC filed a lawsuit against Ripple, accusing the company of selling unregistered securities in the form of XRP tokens.

Fox Business later published a massive investigation into the case. The journalists came to the conclusion that the employees of the department behind the filing of the lawsuit could be affiliated with Ethereum.

Joseph Hall, a partner at law firm Davis Polk and former Commission official, called the regulator’s chances of losing the suit on the merits high. However, he expressed doubts about the imminent completion of the process.

The head of Ripple, Brad Garlinghouse, estimated the legal costs of litigation with the SEC at $200 million.

Recall that at the end of March 2023, there were reports that the company had a good chance of successfully completing the lawsuit.

In April, lawyer Jeremy Hogan said that XRP is not a security and only “possibly fits the definition of an investment contract.”

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