On January 21, Vladislav Serov, investment adviser at Otkritie Investments, said that in 2023 the average exchange rate of the Russian currency could be about 63 rubles per dollar.
In an interview with the Prime agency, he explained that the ruble will be supported by low demand for the currency due to restrictions on capital movements and sanctions risks. In addition, the global weakening of the dollar is due to the fact that the US Federal Reserve System (Fed) will not pursue an aggressive rate policy, as the peak of inflation in the US seems to have passed.
“The market now expects the Fed to start cutting rates in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, so far there are not enough grounds for confidence in such a step,” Serov said.
However, according to the expert, if the US economy avoids a serious recession, and China manages to ignite economic expansion, China’s demand for raw materials will be able to support global inflation. In this case, the Fed will continue to keep the rate at the peak level until the end of 2023.
With a strong drop in Russian exports, the ruble could weaken to 76 per dollar. As Serov noted, a more significant weakening of the currency is unlikely, since even in this case, exports will exceed imports.
Earlier, on January 12, Associate Professor of the Russian University of Economics. G.V. Plekhanov Denis Domashchenko told Izvestia that the depreciation of foreign currencies prompted the decision of the Ministry of Finance to renew the budget rule, under which the ministry would sell yuan to compensate for budget losses due to low oil prices. In addition, according to him, in the absence of a new escalation on the geopolitical front, the Russian currency may strengthen to 65 rubles against the US dollar by the end of January.
The day before, during currency trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar rate fell below 69 rubles. This happened for the first time since December 30th.