Home Economy The Central Bank predicted a decline in GDP until mid-2023

The Central Bank predicted a decline in GDP until mid-2023

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The Central Bank in the published report on monetary policy (pdf.) revised upwards the forecasts for the decline in GDP, inflation and other macroeconomic indicators. According to new estimates, by the end of 2022, GDP will fall by 4.5-6.5%. The decline will last until mid-2023, and then move to moderate growth. Despite the expected quarterly growth, a decline is projected at the end of 2023, which is estimated at 3%. By the end of 2024, GDP growth will be 2-3%. Annual inflation in the Russian Federation will decrease to 5-7% in 2023 and return to 4% in 2024. The Central Bank estimates the neutral key rate at 5-6%. In April, the Central Bank predicted a decline in GDP at the level of 8.5-10.5% by the end of 2022. Annual inflation was previously estimated at 12-15%. According to the forecast of the Central Bank, inflation by the end of 2022 will be 12-15% (in 2021, inflation was 8.4%). By the end of 2023, it will decrease to 5-7% and reach the target level of 4% by the end of 2024. Losses in exports by the end of 2022 will amount to 13-17%. In 2023, exports will decrease -12.5% ​​- -8.5%. According to the forecast of the regulator, exports will return … .

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