The rise in prices for food products, growth in personnel and logistics costs led to an increase in prices in restaurants by an average of 10-15% year-on-year. Market participants are revising the cost of food gradually, fearing a decrease in traffic due to a drop in purchasing power. But in the fall, restaurateurs do not exclude a new indexation.
Large restaurant chains have increased menu prices by 10% over the past year, according to Catery food delivery service. The service providers include Shokoladnitsa, Wabi Sabi, Anderson, Primebeef Bar and other chains. The main reason is an increase in the purchase prices for products by an average of 20%, according to Catery. In particular, prices for fruits, vegetables, fish, seafood and imported cheeses have risen, while prices for pasta, flour and cereals have remained almost unchanged. According to Rosstat, in May food prices in the Russian Federation rose by 7.4% in annual terms. Cinnabon COO Denis Zhuravlev confirmed that the chain has recently increased prices by about 10%. And the director of one of the Moscow cafes “Anderson” Alexandra Alekseeva added that the prices were also affected by the increase in logistics costs.
Sergey Mironov, the founder of the Myaso & Ryba restaurant chain, says that he has discussed with partners who run establishments the price increase for about 20 items on the menu within the range of 10-15%. The cost of those dishes, the sale of which remains profitable, until it is decided not to revise, he added. According to the restaurateur, it is planned to consider a new price indexation in the fall based on the market conditions. Co-owner of the Teremok chain Mikhail Goncharov says that since the beginning of 2021, the cost of dishes on the menu has grown by an average of 3%. According to him, during March and May, prices in establishments increased by 1–2 rubles. per month per serving, a similar increase is planned for June. Mr. Goncharov added that at the same time in Teremka there was an indexation of the salaries of employees. Igor Bukharov, President of the Federation of Restaurateurs and Hoteliers of Russia, clarifies that restaurant chains have on average raised the cost of dishes within 15%, but the dynamics may differ depending on the region and the cost of logistics. According to him, current prices may remain until the end of the summer season, after which the need for a new indexation will become clear.
As noted in Catery, large restaurant chains hold back prices on the menu due to wholesale purchases, but small establishments do not have such an advantage, and therefore the cost of items on the menu may increase up to 20%. “At the same time, if products continue to rise in price, then large market players will have to follow their example,” warns a service representative. As noted by Mr. Bukharov, market participants are trying to restrain price increases amid falling purchasing power of the population. According to Rosstat, the real disposable income of Russians in the first quarter of 2021 decreased by 3.6% yoy and by 26.7% by the fourth quarter of 2020. Delivery Club declined to comment. And a representative of Yandex.Eda said that prices in the 50 most popular restaurants from May to May, on the contrary, fell by more than 2%.
The general director of Infoline-Analytica Mikhail Burmistrov explains that food cost in the structure of the cost of restaurant meals is 20-30%, and the rest falls on rent, staff salaries, and delivery costs. The expert doubts the increase in average prices on the menu by only 10%. In his opinion, such dynamics could be taking into account the reduction in the size of portions and changes in the recipe with the optimization of the cost of ingredients. Mr. Burmistrov has no doubts that restaurateurs will have to continue to raise prices this year: food prices continue to rise, especially in the wholesale segment, personnel and courier costs are growing, and the cost of delivery is increasing taking into account the growing share of intermediaries. According to Mikhail Goncharov, a controlled gradual revision of prices should not lead to an outflow of visitors.