The analyst assessed possible changes in the exchange rate due to the new rules of the Central Bank

The main consequence of the establishment of a quasi-market exchange rate by the Central Bank of Russia will be an inaccurate reflection of supply and demand. Also, many experts fear that the new rate may even be lower than the current one. Pavel Samiev, General Director of the BusinessDrom analytical agency, announced this on Monday, October 3.

“In the absence of exchange trading, which will be the result of new anti-Russian sanctions, the Central Bank will determine the course based on information about bank transactions, over-the-counter trading. Perhaps every day the regulator will update the rate based on reports. Maybe it will be recorded at some level,” Samiev said in a conversation with Lenta.Ru.

According to the analyst, the problem is that, since such a rate will no longer be a market rate, it will no longer accurately reflect the supply and demand for the currency, as it was during exchange trading.

“Many fear that in the end this quasi-market rate may even be lower than it is now. But it is, of course, difficult to predict this. Also, the risk of manipulation of the exchange rate is not ruled out: this will depend on whether the Central Bank will publish reports. If not, then the rate can easily be made the way the regulator wants,” Samiyev warned.

The fact that additional procedures have been developed for establishing official rates of foreign currencies, the regulator said earlier in the day.

For calculations, the Central Bank plans to use alternative data sources – bank statements and digital platforms for over-the-counter trading.

Earlier, on September 29, Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, did not rule out the possibility of stopping exchange trading in US dollars and euros. At the same time, Valery Polkhovsky, a senior analyst at the Forex Club Group of Companies, called it unlikely that exchange trading in these currencies would stop, despite the fact that they “are becoming more and more” toxic “.

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