Mark Goykhman, Chief Analyst at TeleTrade, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta about the main factors behind the strengthening of the ruble. And gave a forecast for the next week:
– The rate of the Russian currency is growing, as the market showed an additional supply of currency accumulated by exporters during the holidays. On the other hand, the demand for it from importers decreased due to the seasonal decrease in payments for the import of goods in January.
The weakening of the dollar in the world currency market continues, which is associated with expectations of a decrease in the growth rate of interest rates by the US Federal Reserve. Indirectly, this also supports the ruble.
An important and unexpected factor in the strengthening of the Russian currency was the announcement by the Russian Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank about the beginning of sales of yuan for rubles on January 13 under a new “budget rule”. This is done to replenish revenues to the treasury in case of shortfall in forecast oil and gas revenues. In January, the volume of such interventions is relatively small – an average of 3.2 billion rubles a day, with an approximate trading volume of 100 billion rubles a day in yuan.
However, the very fact that these operations would be started was also psychologically important. This led to the support of the ruble a few days before their implementation.
Next week it will be important that the monthly period of tax payments begins, with increased sales of foreign exchange earnings by exporters. It will last until the middle of the third decade of the month. This is a driver of higher demand for the ruble. Together with the implementation of the yuan by the state, it can contribute to the growth of the Russian currency. It will also be stimulated by the preservation of a significant excess of exports over imports.
Next week, the dollar will be in the range of 66-70 rubles, the euro – 71-77 rubles.