Don’t shoot a chess player // It was found out how the Bank of Russia beats the markets: it calculates better

In a series of reports by the Bank of Russia, a publication was published on one of the most interesting topics for the market – about the “surprises” of monetary policy (MP). The conclusions of the authors: the main role in the fact that the signals of the Central Bank are rarely accurately guessed by … Read more

Let’s eat our own // The Ministry of Economy expects stabilization from the budget, recession from GDP, and reduction from imports

The macro-parameters of scenario conditions for economic development developed by the Ministry of Economy are being discussed in the government. They were first created in the logic of the new version of the budget rules, which assume stable exports at just under $500 billion a year, the agency, in line with expectations of a two-year … Read more

Import substitution will receive a loan // SMEs are promised loans at 3–4.5% per annum

To attract small and medium-sized businesses to import substitution, the authorities are piloting a new program of concessional lending for investment purposes – at only 3% and 4.5% per annum. This tool will be available to companies in the processing, logistics, agricultural processing and hospitality industries. In order to reduce the cost of lending, it … Read more

The ECB assessed the impact of sanctions on Russian imports // Foreign Trade Monitoring

A new edition of the Economic Bulletin of the European Central Bank (ECB) analyzes changes in trade supplies from Russia since the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine. Energy and agri-food flows are tracked by ECB analysts using data on shipping and gas supplies, imports to Russia are summarized based on statistics from … Read more

Say something like a central bank // ECB economists wondered if the population of Europe understands them

Economists at the European Central Bank (ECB) have published a review on the new stage of the “communication revolution of central banks”. The active communication of regulators with the professional community since the 1990s has been transformed in recent years into a discussion by central banks of the next step – direct communication with the … Read more

US GDP declined for the second quarter in a row // Monitoring of the world economy

US GDP in the second quarter fell by 0.9% year on year, the US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis reported yesterday. This is worse than the forecasts of most analysts who expected at least a minimal increase. Let’s be clear: the US indicator shows how much the size of the economy would shrink … Read more

Longer, softer, more boring // The Central Bank reduced the cost of credit and extended the forecast for the duration of the recession

The key rate has been reduced again, and unexpectedly much: the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to set it at 8% per annum. In the revised forecast for 2022-2024, the Central Bank assumes that the continuation of the recession in 2023 is inevitable, the recession will be less deep and longer … Read more