Small business in poor health // The first statistical descriptions of the business results of the lockdowns of 2020 have appeared

The COVID-19 lockdowns of 2020, contrary to the many and varied assumptions of economists in this regard, had a predictable impact on the structure of entrepreneurship. As a study by American economists based on materials from California showed, the concentration of business sales as a result shifted towards large companies – they recovered more slowly … Read more

Yes, and a sequence // The report of the Central Bank on monetary policy promises difficult times until the end of next winter

The Bank of Russia’s monetary policy report released yesterday clarifies the regulator’s earlier assumptions about what will happen to the country’s economy in the next few years. The bottom point of a consistent (“sequential”) decline in GDP, according to the calculations of the Bank of Russia, will be passed at the end of 2022, the … Read more

Peskov refused to answer experts’ assumptions about Putin’s decisions

Moscow, 11 February. Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov did not comment on the versions of some experts about the reasons for the course pursued by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Some experts believe that the head of state allegedly postpones the implementation of some domestic political decisions because of his concentration on foreign policy. The press secretary … Read more

Investors suspect something // Global uncertainty leads to a significant decrease in FDI inflows

Domestic economic and political uncertainty in transition economies, including Russia, tends to hold back foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, a group of economists, including employees of the Bank of France and the University of Wisconsin, found out. The value of global uncertainty is always higher than the local one, but this is more pronounced only … Read more

Dried up as state demand // Summer purchases of the state this year turned out to be significantly lower than expected

Procurement statistics for the public and commercial sectors demonstrate significant redistribution of demand in the Russian economy. The EIS data processed by SKB.Kontur in the procurement of the state and state-owned companies confirm the assumptions about the reduction of government spending and purchases of state-owned companies (see Kommersant of November 11), and also record a … Read more

Saving under-spent // Indicators of inflation observed by the population in September decreased

Inflation and inflationary expectations of the population observed in the surveys in September 2021 began to decline for the first time since the beginning of the year. Contrary to the assumptions, the September social payments to the population did not have a noticeable effect on expectations, but the increase by the Bank of Russia in … Read more

No hope for borscht // Central Bank economists expect only inflation to stabilize in the second half of the year

In its July review of economic trends, the Bank of Russia proposes not to wait for a decrease in inflation in the coming months. It is more likely to stabilize – in the set of factors that do not directly depend on the monetary policy (MP) of the Central Bank, there are long-term ones. Central … Read more

Let me proclaim growth // The Ministry of Economy has improved its macro forecast for the next three years

The Ministry of Economy sent to the regions the approximate figures of the revised macro forecast until 2024. The next three-year budget is drawn up on the assumption that in 2021 GDP growth will more than compensate for the fall in 2020, and in the post-crisis reality it will not fall below 3% per year. … Read more