MOSCOW, 17 Aug — There is a possibility that Russia will face all the scenarios of macroeconomic development prepared by the regulator in 2022-2025 – basic, “accelerated adaptation” and “global crisis”. About it told “Prime” Chief Analyst of “Sovcombank” Mikhail Vasiliev.
“Firstly, we expect a global recession to hit in 2023. The energy and food crises, record global inflation and falling household incomes, the fastest tightening of monetary policy by world central banks in 20 years, geopolitical contradictions, new waves of the pandemic — all these factors are leading to rapid worsening economic conditions in the world,” he explained.
Vasilyev noted that the crisis is connected mainly with the geopolitical situation. Thus, the IMF warned about the risks of fragmentation of the world economy against the backdrop of the situation around Ukraine. A confrontation between the US and China is also expected when Beijing will try to get away from the dollar and the euro and stop buying Western securities. This, Vasiliev stressed, will have a negative impact on the global economy.
The expert noted that the economic downturn will also deepen due to the risk of falling oil prices in 2023.
Vasiliev believes that Russia will cope better than others with the global crisis, which will also have little effect on Asian countries. Therefore, according to the analyst, Russia’s reorientation to the East and the development of its own production will help maintain employment and reduce the economic downturn.