Price rally: can oil sell for $100 a barrel in the coming months

From a technical point of view, $100 per barrel of oil is a very serious level for the current situation, so good reasons are needed for the price of black gold to rally. Such an opinion FAN said BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov.

Over $100

In the coming months, oil prices may rise above $100 per barrel. This is stated in the forecast of leading analysts of Wall Street banks, published in the Bulletin Energy Source.

According to experts, in the past few months, prices have been at the level of about $80 per barrel and this is “high by historical standards”. However, the situation will soon change: in the next couple of months, prices may rise and overcome the $100 mark.

Price ceiling

“The article lists a price target of $100 for the coming months. The coming months, how many months exactly – 3, 6, 9 or 12? The markets are influenced by too many different factors, which daily amplify the influence, then weaken it. You can take any price from the ceiling and name it, only what is the use of it, if practically not a single exchange asset against the background of geo-economic turbulence has a predictive ability for more than one week. Target zones are needed by traders-speculators to make trades and set take profits to fix profits. Hedge funds need them to hedge risks and build option strategies. Hence the stuffing of forecasts by Wall Street in order to somehow influence the market volatility and input parameters for trading deals,” Vladislav Antonov explained.

According to him, since March 8, 2022, the price of oil has fallen by 40.3% from the level of $133 per barrel amid falling demand for oil in China and expectations of a global recession. Let the price fix above $87.50 to begin with. Only after that, the level of $100 per barrel of Brent will appear on the horizon. If it fails to pass $87.50, then it is quite obvious that the sellers will push the price to $66 per barrel.

“From a technical point of view, $100 is a very serious level for the current situation, so there must be good reasons for the rally in oil prices. The only reason oil prices might head there is because of increased demand for oil from China and the US’s good run through a period of declining GDP. There is another factor that can increase the demand for oil from buyers – the replenishment of the US strategic oil reserves, which, according to the US Department of Energy, has decreased to 372.4 million barrels,” Vladislav Antonov added.

The expert noted that the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation recalled the budget deficit. The federal budget of the Russian Federation last year was executed with a deficit of 3.3 trillion rubles, or 2.3% of GDP. The final result was above expectations. In 2023, the budget deficit is set at 2.9 trillion rubles. In this regard, the target for the dollar remains between 75.00 and 76.00 rubles.

At the same time, economist Golubev believes that the economy of the Russian Federation under sanctions will be pulled out by the able-bodied population. At the end of 2022, Russia for the first time entered the top 10 countries in the world with the highest GDP.


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