The growth rate of the world economy in the next two years may be slightly higher than was recently expected. The May report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) improved the forecast for an increase in world GDP to 5.8% in 2021 and to 4.4% in 2022. However, the global economic recovery is expected to be uneven due to ongoing pandemic outbreaks. Most countries have succeeded in adapting, but in low-income countries, with vaccine shortages, poverty is expected to rise, exacerbating intercountry inequalities.
The OECD predicts a noticeable improvement in the global economy and the return of most countries to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. According to the report of this organization, global GDP growth in 2021 is projected at 5.8% (0.2 p.p. more than expected in March), in 2022 – 4.4% (0.4 p.p.). more).
Earlier, against the background of active vaccination, the adoption of new packages of budget support by countries and an effective fight against the pandemic, the global macro forecast has already been revised upward by the International Monetary Fund: the expected growth of global GDP in 2021 was increased from 5.5% to 6%, in 2022 – from 4.2% to 4.4% (see Kommersant of April 7).
The OECD notes that 16 months after the start of the pandemic, most countries have managed to adapt to new outbreaks of coronavirus.
As a result, the manufacturing sector is growing, as the borders open, trade is restored, and the resumption of labor activity is accompanied by a sharp increase in consumption.
According to the OECD forecasts, the growth of the Russian economy in 2021 will amount to 3.5% (in March it was expected at the level of 2.7%), in 2022 – 2.8% (2.4 percentage points). The projected growth of the US economy in 2021 may amount to 6.9% against 6.5% in March (at the same time, the OECD downgraded its forecast for 2022 – from 4% to 3.6%). The eurozone economy in 2021 may grow by 4.3% (plus 0.4 p.p.), and in 2022 – by 4.4% (plus 0.6 p.p.).
The OECD notes that the global economic recovery will be uneven, and by 2023 many countries will not be able to achieve the standard of living expected before the pandemic. New outbreaks of the disease will still have a strong impact on low-income countries, primarily due to vaccine shortages. This will exacerbate their poverty-related problems as well as increase inequality between countries.