Home Economy Industry sentiment confuses analysts // Monitoring of market conditions

Industry sentiment confuses analysts // Monitoring of market conditions

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In the current issue of the Commentaries on Government and Business bulletin, analysts from the HSE Development Center (CR) examine the results of market surveys by Rosstat of industrialists in June 2022 (see chart). Against the backdrop of a recession in the sector (caused by both supply and demand factors), depletion of stocks and expectations of the launch of compensatory mechanisms (import substitution and the emergence of alternative import suppliers), survey indicators “in theory contain implicit knowledge of economic agents about the real situation in the economy ” and allow, unlike standard data, to make fairly accurate short-term forecasts based on the extrapolation method, economists say. “Year-on-year industrial production index in June, according to our forecast, will be about minus 1-1.5%. With the seasonality removed, this will mean an increase of 1–1.5% by May,” they estimated. June 1st). According to polls….

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