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In Russia, it is necessary to fall for a long time // The Central Bank explained the softness of the recession by the mutual expectation of sellers and buyers


The Bank of Russia has put forward a new explanation for the short-term situation in the Russian economy: according to its economists, we can talk about an “adaptive expectation trap”, in which the protracted GDP decline is explained by the inertia of both consumers and producers. Companies are expecting demand adjustments, consumers are expecting supply corrections, including price adjustments, which is why the demand for deposits is growing. The Central Bank does not predict how long the mutual expectation will last, but so far they believe that the Russian economy will move to growth in the third quarter of next year, and the inflationary surge, in fact, will be over at the beginning of 2023, although the return to the target four percent inflation happen a year later. .

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