said that on June 1, the ruble managed to break through the key mark, the coming days will be positive for the ruble, but after June 18, everything can change.
According to Rambler, at the close of trading on the Moscow Exchange on Friday, the dollar fell to 70.12 rubles, on Monday, June 1, the US dollar fell below 70 rubles, and in the morning of June 2 – below 69 rubles for the first time since March 6.
According to analysts polled by the Expert, the ruble began to strengthen due to rising oil prices and improving investor sentiment: their appetite for risky assets increased due to the decision of US President Donald Trump not to break the trade deal with China.
Geldy Soyunov from Promsvyaz Asset Management noted that the ruble growth was also helped by the depreciation of the dollar against major currency pairs. In his opinion, the publication of statistics in the USA and the Russian Federation in the second half of the week will affect the Russian currency, in the coming days the dollar will drop in price to the level of 68.70 rubles.
However, Yuri Kravchenko from Veles Capital Investment Company warned that a weakening dollar could turn out to be just a temporary correction. According to him, soon the markets may begin to “win back” due to fears of a new wave of pandemic, the US-China conflict, as well as protests and unrest in the United States. As a result, the dollar may return to the corridor of 70-71 rubles.
Analysts at Expert recalled that from spring to June, the Russian stock market is almost always growing, “no matter what cataclysms happen”, it grew even in 2014. This is due to the purchase of shares by large players before dividend payments.
According to analysts, until June 18, the Russian currency will definitely not show negative dynamics, but after this date there are risks. The potential to reduce the Central Bank rate by this time will be exhausted, and non-residents will begin to convert dividends into currency and partially withdraw abroad.