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Forecast at the ruble exchange rate: Whether to expect the dollar at 90

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Economists at the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Range Forecasting (TsMAKP) believe that by the end of 2020, the Russian currency may collapse to 90 rubles per dollar. It is reported “Expert”.

According to experts, the ruble could collapse the continuation of the pandemic until the third quarter and its second wave is already in the fourth quarter. In this case, restrictions will be introduced again throughout the world, including in Russia.

TsMAKP explained that because of this, oil prices will fall again and capital outflows from emerging markets will begin. All this can lead to a dollar at 89-90 rubles this winter.

Mark Goikhman from TeleTrade said that in the near future oil prices will not be able to gain a foothold above $ 40 per barrel, so support for the national currency will be “extremely limited.” According to his forecast, in the short term, the dollar will cost 70-70.80 rubles, the euro – 75.80-77.80 rubles.
Bogdan Zvarich from Promsvyazbank believes that in the short term the Russian currency will try to strengthen to 67.50 rubles per dollar, but by the end of June the dollar will return to the range of 70-75 rubles.
According to Rambler, earlier the dollar fell below 69 rubles for the first time since March 6. Analysts attributed this to higher oil prices, lower Central Bank rates, lower imports and lower demand for foreign currency.
Later, Alor Broker chief analyst Alexei Antonov said that by the end of 2020, the Russian currency could fall to 90-100 rubles per dollar. According to him, this could happen due to falling oil prices and a weakening economy against the backdrop of a pandemic.

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source: rambler

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