For the first time in eight years, the price of the first cryptocurrency in September closed in positive territory, which favors a bullish mood in October. Bitfinex analysts came to this conclusion.
Based on observations, 9 of the previous 13 monthly closures in September were negative.
According to experts, the continued upward dynamics are indicated by the state of the crypto derivatives market. In particular, options have a high probability of implying a surge in price fluctuations – implied volatility (36.4%) exceeded historical (27.1%).
“All of this suggests potential for some upside, at least on the longer time frame,” – the experts pointed out.
According to analysts, on-chain indicators do not contradict the findings. Coins held over the past 6 to 12 months are “stable,” while supply over three years has remained largely dormant since February 2023, experts explained.
“The metrics demonstrate that hodlers are committed to holding in the current price range,” – the report says.
Bloomberg senior analyst Michael McGlone questioned the willingness of digital assets to maintain their growth trajectory due to the weakness of the stock market.
“Cryptocurrencies may be trending toward renewed price declines. The biggest risk for them will be the formation of a recession-typical drawdown in stocks. […] Liquidity continues to decrease, which affects quotes. Coming of age in a world of zero interest rates, the digital asset hangover could linger as global rates continue to rise. – the specialist emphasized.
Declining Bitcoin Has Preceded #Fed Pivots –
The bottom line for #Bitcoin at the start of 4Q may be that liquidity remains negative, with price implications. Coming of age in a zero interest-rate world, the #crypto hangover could be enduring as global rates continue to rise,… pic.twitter.com/Nrn8lMaYzo
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) October 3, 2023
According to McGlone, weakness in the third quarter could be a sign of economic contraction to come. At the same time, central banks have not yet abandoned tightening monetary policy.
Drawing historical parallels, the specialist mentioned the fall of Bitcoin before reversals Fedimplying that cryptocurrencies can serve as leading indicators for broader market liquidity.
Let us recall that in September, Bitfinex analysts recorded signs of a resumption of the bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market.
Previously, experts from QCP Capital gave four arguments in favor of the forecast with the return of the Bitcoin price to $25,000.
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