June begins, and Kommersant offers an economic forecast for the month. Experts answer questions about what will happen to the dollar against the ruble, how world oil prices will change, what inflation will turn out to be, and how the dollar and euro will behave in the world currency market.
1. What will be the dollar / ruble exchange rate?
2. What will inflation be?
3. What will be the oil prices?
4. What will be the rate of the euro against the dollar?
Nikita Maslennikov, Head of Finance and Economics, Institute of Contemporary Development (INSOR):
Photo: Gleb Shchelkunov, Kommersant
one. Situation with the ruble June will be largely determined by geopolitical factors. If there is even a temporary weakening of risks following the meeting of the presidents of Russia and the United States, then we have good chances that the exchange rate will shift from the current corridor of 73–74 rubles per dollar to the corridor of 72.5–73.5 rubles per dollar.
2. In May inflation returned to a step of growth less than in April, and June is likely to repeat this pace. For a month, it will be slightly below 0.5%. Inflation has reached its plateau, and in June the factor of lowering prices for seasonal fruits and vegetables will start to turn on, on the other hand, there is no convincing evidence yet that the growth of producer prices will subside. So it’s a tricky composition. Plus, it is not yet very clear what will happen to gasoline prices, especially taking into account the intensification of domestic tourism.
3. Oil now it is a little overvalued and the speculative factor influences its price. It seems to me that June will be highly volatile with a slight downward trend in the price, which at the end of June will be in the range of $ 65–67 per barrel of Brent, closer to the upper border. The forecast is pessimistic, but I am betting on it, since oil prices will generally tend to decline for some time, not only in June. Now there is a deficit on the market, but it will be quickly filled by both OPEC decisions and Iran’s behavior, and the development of the US shale program.
four. While it seems that Euro Should not weaken, however, it is difficult to give an accurate forecast before June 15-16. The next meeting of the FOMC of the US Federal Reserve is due to take place, and we are waiting for information leaks when they begin to reduce asset purchases. This may strengthen the dollar a little. But, on the other hand, it is highly likely that they will postpone this case, and the final decision will be made public only at the end of the summer. There are two options: either the euro will remain at the end of May at $ 1.22 per euro, or it will swing slightly in either direction – it will strengthen and lose 0.02%.
Alexey Vedev, Director of the Center for Structural Research, Yegor Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy:
Photo: Dmitry Dukhanin, Kommersant
one. Course ruble will be stable within the range of 72–74 rubles per dollar. The favorable pricing environment for Russian exports increases the trade and current account surplus. All calculation models indicate that with an oil price of about $ 70 per barrel, the rate should be 65-67 rubles per dollar. However, the effect of the budget rule causes an undervaluation of the Russian currency.
2. According to my estimates, inflation is at its maximum (5.8% yoy), if the ruble does not devalue. But taking into account seasonal factors, I expect inflation to remain at the May level, that is, 0.5%. The key rate will most likely be raised in June, but this will not have an impact on inflation next month.
3. Prices oil will be in the range of $ 66-69 per barrel of Brent. On the one hand, OPEC slightly increases production limits, which naturally increases supply. On the other hand, with the lifting of restrictions within the framework of the coronavirus epidemic, business activity increases, which ultimately leads to an increase in oil demand. All this leads to the preservation of the current price corridor.
four. The gradual lifting of restrictions related to the coronavirus leads to the recovery of the American and European economies. At the same time, the US looks preferable: according to numerous forecasts, this year the US economy is expected to grow by 5.7-6.0%. The forecasts also point to a more moderate growth of the European economy (the pace is almost two times lower). These expectations will lead to some strengthening of the dollar to the level of $ 1.18-1.19 per Euro…
Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank:
Photo: courtesy of the press service of Alfa-Bank
one. Looking forward to seeing a course at level 76 rubles for the dollar. There will be several important meetings in June – ECB, FRS, and it seems to me that the nervousness of the markets about inflation is increasing. Putin’s meeting with Biden is unlikely to change the sanctions regime, but there will be no more positive expectations, there will be a classic situation when positive news passes, and the market has no optimistic forecasts for the future and a correction begins.
2. I guess that inflation in June it will be 0.4%, or rather even 0.5%, in annual terms it will be 5.8-5.9%. For the second month now, there has been a rapid growth in lending and a decrease in the unemployment rate, the labor market and the migrant market are recovering, and this means that the demand for labor resources is growing.
3. Based on the fact that I am expecting a correction in the ruble, I would expect to see a value at the level of $ 62 per barrel, the general logic of the correction in the markets is traced.
four. Course Euro I forecast against the dollar at 1.20, here one can trace the so-called risk risk – the expectation that there will be a faster tightening of the monetary regime in the US and a general decrease in the demand for risk.
Vadim Soskov, Deputy General Director of MC “Gazprombank – Asset Management”:
Photo: RIA Novosti
one. Ruble in June has a high chance of strengthening. These expectations are supported by the continuing trend towards a weakening of the dollar against other currencies, some positive news on the geopolitical front, as well as confidently strong oil prices. In addition, the announcement of plans to increase public investment in the economy at the expense of the NWF is likely. At the same time, this strengthening will be in the region of 72–72.5 rubles per dollar. The traditional deterrent for the ruble in June-July is significant dividend payments by Russian corporations, some of which are converted into US dollars.
2. Inflation in June, most likely, it will be about 6% yoy, or 0.3-0.5% per month. The acceleration relative to April-May is due to the exhaustion of the high base effect of April 2020, plus the continuing inflationary impulse in both the food and non-food segments.
3. Even if there is progress in negotiations with Iran on a nuclear deal, the likelihood of corrective action by OPEC + is high. At the same time, the demand for energy resources is still high due to the gradual opening of economies. Accordingly, the range of Brent crude oil is $ 65-70 per barrel will remain decisive in June.
four. Course Euro is close to its fair level, while in case of resumption of growth in the yields of US Treasury bonds, we can expect a gradual strengthening of the dollar against the euro, which, nevertheless, is unlikely to overcome the 1.2 milestone.