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Delphi Digital co-founder and head of research Kevin Kelly saw signs of an early bull rally in the current digital asset market.
According to Kelly, the standard cryptocycle begins when Bitcoin hits an all-time high followed by an 80% drawdown.
After about two years, it recovers to its previous ATH and continues to grow to a new one. This sequence lasts approximately four years.
Kelly believes that this pattern is not random, but consistent with the “broader business cycle.” He noticed that the price peak of bitcoin often coincides with the manufacturing index. ISM.
According to the Delphi co-founder’s analysis, ISM is already in the final stages of a downtrend. The current situation reminds him of the market of 2015-2017.
Kelly noted that the last two halvings in the network of the first cryptocurrency occurred approximately 18 months after the asset hit the bottom, and seven months before it hit an all-time high.
The next block reward halving is expected in April 2024. The expert believes that after about six months, digital gold will be able to reach ATH.
According to a survey by blogger PlanB, 60% of respondents believe in the beginning of a bull market after the halving.
Despite the positive forecast, Kelly warned that there is no guarantee that such a scenario will develop. He also suggested the possibility of a “false bottom”.
“In fact, this is the time when we can see another modest sell-off or period of price consolidation, especially after the strong rally that we have seen over the past 9 months (similar to the second half of 2019),” he said.
Recall that Glassnode analysts noted the stage of extreme apathy in the bitcoin market. In support of their words, the experts pointed to the reduction in the spread of Bollinger bands to 2.9%.
The 30-day volatility of bitcoin on an annualized basis has dropped to 15.5% – the lowest value in history.
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