After Grayscale’s legal victory in a case against SEC Bloomberg analysts James Seiffart and Eric Balciunas estimated the probability of launching a spot bitcoin ETF by the end of 2023 at 75%.
“James and I are up to 75% chance of launching spot Bitcoin ETFs this year (95% by the end of 2024). While we factored in Grayscale’s 65% win in our previous estimate, the unanimity and clarity of the decision exceeded all expectations, leaving the SEC very little room to maneuver,” Balciunas said.
In his opinion, the legal and image losses of the regulator in the litigation widely covered by the mainstream media “make denial politically untenable.”
The deadlines for the Commission to make decisions on applications for the registration of bitcoin funds from BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity and Valkyrie are in early September. However, analysts expect delays.
“We would not be surprised if the SEC drags on, given what has happened. However, I am not sure that in this situation the timing will have the same meaning. It is more likely that we will wake up one day and hear that the Commission has given up and the launch is imminent,” Balciunas suggested.
According to Seyffart, soon approval of applications after the decision of the court is unlikely.
The SEC has 45 days to request a rehearing. After this period, the court will issue a final verdict.
Recall that the US Congress again proposed to dismiss the head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, after a court decision to convert the Grayscale bitcoin trust into an ETF.
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