Given the extremely low volatility and tight trading ranges, the current equilibrium in the Bitcoin market will soon be upset. This assessment was given by Glassnode analysts.
The latest Week On-chain edition is live!— _Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) May 29, 2023
We analyze a #Bitcoin market that looks primed for a regime of higher volatility in the near-term.
With little clear gravity in either direction, we bound the problem using key psychological price models.https://t.co/mLfWPD2O5t pic.twitter.com/q3kXzRlK8y
The monthly realized volatility fell to 34.1%, below one standard deviation of the Bollinger Bands. Such periods of low volatility account for only 19.3% of market history.
Lower volatility and lower on-chain value transferred indicate a phase of equilibrium. This is confirmed by the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss indicator (NUPL), the value of which (0.29) corresponds to similar stages of cycle development (from 0.25 to 0.5). In the previous two similar episodes, this condition lasted about 16 months. NUPL moved into this zone in March 2023.
The “cost” of coins purchased by active investors is $33,500. According to experts, this level may be the upper limit of the current consolidation. The MVRV of this category of market participants is 0.83 – many buyers in the 2021-2022 cycle are “in the red” and “can wait for break-even prices to liquidate their assets.”
The lower boundary of consolidation can be the metric Investor Cap Price at $17,650.
The equilibrium phase is also indicated by the ratio of the current price and “cost” in relation to long-term investors. Exceeding the second metric of the first marked the completion of the “bottom formation”.
Hodler Spending Tracker Spending Binary Indicator (7D-MA) has shown “extremely low readings over recent weeks with activation during the recent correction.”
Recall that in March, influential industry figures polled by CNBC showed a bullish attitude towards bitcoin. According to their forecasts, this year the asset can test the previous high and even reach $100,000.
In growth to this mark, but within 12 months, the founder and CEO of the analytical company Messari Ryan Selkis expressed confidence.