By most indicators of market activity, the hype among bitcoin investors is giving way to apathy. In anticipation of the halving, hodlers continue to accumulate coins, according to Glassnode.
#Bitcoin is quiet, volumes are down, and it is pretty clear we are in the hangover apathy phase.
But look under the surface.
What are the highest conviction holders doing?
What are the fundamental supply dynamics?
Latest analysis hot off the press.https://t.co/Y4sfE2W63e
— _Checkɱate 🔑⚡🌋☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) June 19, 2023
The situation that has arisen is well characterized by the drop in realized volatility on a monthly basis to the zone of minimum values of the bullish phase of 2021.
Analysts explained that such events usually occur during a long sideways movement, when the market “gets back on its feet” after an extended bearish trend.
A similar picture is observed in the futures market, where the daily trading volume “dried up” to $20.9 billion. The implied volatility of bitcoin options with different expiration periods dropped to levels close to cyclical lows.
On-chain indicators confirm the current trend. The total amount of realized profits and losses decreased to the levels of 2020, when digital gold was valued at $10,000.
“This shows how ‘quiet’ capital flows in and out of this asset class have been to date,” experts stressed.
The monthly rate of accumulation of coins by hodlers reached 42,200 BTC. Analysts pointed out that such a regime started a little over two years ago and, in the event of a repetition of previous cycles, it could last another 6 to 12 months.
The previous observation is confirmed by the divergence in the trends of exchange balances and the volume of coins stored in illiquid wallets (with the actual absence of spending history).
The latter reached a new level of 15.2 million BTC (78.3% of supply), the first fell to its lowest level since January 2018 (2.3 million BTC, 11.7% of supply).
The monthly hodler replenishment rate reached 146,000 BTC.
A more detailed picture is given by the structure of accumulation among various categories of investors. Shrimps, crabs and fish (with balances up to 100 BTC) show high activity in the accumulation mode. Over the past month, in total, these market participants replenished wallets 2.54 times faster than coins issued by miners.
The situation is different with “whales” (over 1000 BTC), which sold the equivalent of 70% of the issued bitcoins. The redemption by “sharks” (from 100 to 1000 BTC) of coins was estimated by analysts at 36% of the increased supply.
“The market appears to be in a period of ‘calm’ accumulation. This indicates weak demand, despite counter-claims from regulators in recent times,” experts noted.
Assessing the duration of the previous phases of accumulation, the analysts assumed that a return to the historical maximum could take place in 8-18 months. In general, such periods lasted from 459 to 770 days. The “age” of the current one has so far reached 221 days, they calculated.
Recall that CoinShares analysts noted the caution of investors in the cryptocurrency market due to the lack of certainty in the issue of completing the cycle of tightening monetary policy. Fed.
Former former chairman CFTC Timothy Massad said that the future of digital assets depends on the outcome of litigation SEC against Binance and Coinbase.
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