The risks of the global economy are indeed shifting to a tougher scenario. Natalya Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, told a REGNUM correspondent about this.
Thus, the annual inflation in the Eurozone in October increased by 10.7%, although in September the figure did not exceed 9.9%. The ECB is feverishly raising interest rates, but it looks like a recession is inevitable, the expert says.
At the same time, it is too early to say that the world economic crisis will soon come. For example, in the United States, a decline in GDP occurred during the first two quarters of 2022, but already in the third quarter, the country’s economy grew by 2.6% in annual terms.
In China, which was also affected by rising inflation, inflation slowed down in October, increasing by only 2.1% in annual terms.
Now, fleeing inflation and high energy prices, the EU’s energy-intensive business is fleeing to the US. The harsh scenario for the development of the world economy, which the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina warned about, will be possible not so much because of a recession, but because of a change in the entire architecture of world geopolitics and economics, and these processes will continue for at least the next few years, Milchakova concluded.
Meanwhile, the EC has already warned of a recession in the last quarter of 2022.