ACRA expects dollar to weaken to 71.5 rubles by early 2022

The dollar exchange rate by the beginning of next year will be at the level of about 71.5 rubles. at an oil price of about $ 58 per barrel, forecasts Mikhail Sukhov, head of the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA). According to him, with the expansion of US sanctions, the forecast may change.

“In our baseline scenario, by the beginning of 2022 the rate will be about 71.5 rubles. per dollar with oil prices of about $ 58 per barrel, ”Mr. Sukhov told RIA Novosti. When asked about a possible decrease in the dollar exchange rate to 60 or an increase to 80 rubles. he replied: “We do not consider both scenarios for the development of events in the foreign exchange market highly probable.” According to the Moscow Exchange at 9:12 am, the dollar rate is growing by 0.14%, to 73.25 rubles., The euro rate – by 0.13%, to 89.34 rubles.

The head of ACRA noted that the forecast depends on the possible expansion of US sanctions on the secondary government debt market. “In the variant with their introduction, the rate may significantly deviate from the baseline forecast, because this can stimulate additional sales of OFZ by non-residents,” explained Mikhail Sukhov. At the same time, he considers a long-term fall and consolidation of the exchange rate below 80 rubles unlikely. for the dollar.

In April, the United States imposed new sanctions against Russia, limiting 32 individuals and legal entities. The United States also prohibited its companies from directly purchasing Russian debt securities issued by the Central Bank, the National Wealth Fund, or the RF Ministry of Finance. The sanctions were in response to a cyberattack against US federal agencies that blamed Russia for, as well as meddling in the 2020 elections.

More details about the sanctions are in the Kommersant article “So We’ve Talked”.