Economists have identified three possible scenarios for rising unemployment in Russia due to the coronavirus pandemic. This is reported by RBC owned by Grigory Berezkin, citing a study by specialists from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting.
An optimistic scenario for the development of the situation implies that restrictive measures will be lifted in June this year. In this case, the maximum unemployment rate will be 5.3-5.6 percent.
Under the basic scenario, the economy will be able to function without restrictions already in the fall and winter, which will lead to an increase in unemployment to 8-8.3 percent in 2021. In the years 2022-2023, it will be 7-7.3 percent.
According to a pessimistic forecast, the epidemic will last until the first quarter of 2022. If the restrictions are lifted only after a couple of years, then the maximum unemployment rate will reach 10.5-10.7 percent.
According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in April 2020 the share of unemployed in Russia amounted to 5.8 percent, while at the end of 2019 it was at the level of 4.6 percent.