In 2021, Russia’s GDP will grow by 4.2%, in 2022-2024 – by 3%, according to the explanatory note to the draft Russian federal budget until 2024. The authorities expect that by the end of this year, inflation will be 5.8%, in the next three – 4%, TASS reports with reference to the document. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said that the new draft budget provides for a significant increase in spending on fulfilling obligations to Russians.
During a videoconference government meeting, Mr Mishustin said the Russian economic recovery “is becoming more and more resilient.” He noted that the three-year budget is aimed at “fully fulfilling all the obligations of the state to citizens.” “We will not reduce the expenses for these purposes; on the contrary, they are envisaged to increase significantly in stages within three years,” added the Prime Minister.
The project says that the unemployment rate in 2022-2024 will be at 4.6%. Growth in real disposable income of the population is expected at 3% in 2021, 2.4% in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023-2024. By the end of 2021, real wages are expected to grow by 3.1%, in 2020 – by 2.4%, in the next two years – by 2.5%.
The authorities expect that this year the dollar exchange rate will be 73.6 rubles, in 2022-2024 it will be at the level of 72-74 rubles / $. The price of Urals oil in 2021, according to the draft budget, will be at $ 66 per barrel, in 2022 – $ 62.2, in 2023 – $ 58.4, in 2024 – $ 55.7. The government expects revenues from the oil and gas sector in 2022 to amount to RUB 9.54 trillion. (or 7.2% of GDP) and by 2024 will decrease to 8.56 trillion rubles. (or 5.7% of GDP).
The Ministry of Finance said that the federal budget for 2022–2023 will be drawn up as a surplus – with a 1% surplus in 2022 and 0.3% in 2023. According to him, the 2024 budget will be drawn up with a “small” deficit.
For more details on the federal budget surplus, see Kommersant’s article “Two-thirds of the year closed with a surplus”.