The global economy needs at least 1.5 years to return to the pre-crisis level – Expert

In many countries, there is an active discussion about de-globalization, the return of industrial production from abroad and diversification of supplies in order to reduce dependence on imports, said World Bank Director for Russia Roman Marshavin.

The global economy will need at least a year and a half to overcome the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and return to pre-crisis levels.

Provided that the second wave of coronavirus incidence does not happen in autumn. This opinion was expressed in an interview with TASS by the director of the World Bank from the Russian Federation, Roman Marshavin.

“According to the most optimistic forecasts, even if the outbreak of coronavirus ends by July, the global economy will have to return to pre-crisis levels for at least a year and a half, or even longer,” he said.

A pandemic will change the balance of power in the global economy, Marshavin believes, although this will not happen in one day.

“We see that in many countries there is an active debate about deglobalization, the return of industrial production from abroad and diversification of supplies in order to reduce dependence on imports from one source,” he argues.

In the event of a second wave of morbidity, the economies of the affected countries will face a triple shock associated with the inability of governments to stimulate the economy by increasing costs, the unpreparedness of businesses to invest in the face of uncertainty, and falling consumer demand, since the majority of the population will simply lose their savings in the face of massive unemployment, Marshavin.

“It is to minimize the risks of the second wave of the epidemic that the World Bank has stepped up assistance to countries to strengthen health systems and social protection. In the next 15 months, it is planned to raise more than $ 160 billion to help the bank’s clients for these purposes. Given the promised co-financing from regional development banks, this amount will be about $ 240 billion, “he concluded.

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