“Return to normalization”. The economist gave a forecast for the dollar

The dollar rose above 61 rubles, according to the data of the Moscow Exchange. What could be the reason for the strengthening of the US currency, economic and financial analyst Mark Goykhman said in an interview with Sputnik radio.

At the beginning of trading on Monday, the ruble fell against the dollar and against the euro after a slight increase. The dollar has risen above 61 rubles, the euro is trading at about 62.6 rubles, RIA Novosti writes, citing data from the Moscow Exchange.

The dollar exchange rate by settlements “tomorrow” at 10.06 Moscow time is growing by 69 kopecks, up to 61.30 rubles, the euro – by 33 kopecks, up to 62.64 rubles.

In an interview with Sputnik Radio, an economic and financial analyst, Ph.D. in Economics Mark Goykhman expressed the opinion that the movement of the dollar is connected with the position of the Bank of Russia.

“The current movement is due to several circumstances, in particular, to the fall in oil prices. But mainly, in my opinion, this is due to the position of our Central Bank, which said that it would agree on a return to the budget rule, that is, to artificial purchases of foreign currency for replenishment of the National Wealth Fund (NWF).

The Central Bank can carry out purchases of currencies alternative to the ruble – the yuan, the Turkish lira, and the dirham of the Indian rupee. This will create a forgotten already artificial demand for the currency as a whole, including dollars. And when the dollar or euro is more are strong against the ruble, additional ruble revenues appear, which is important for energy exporters and for the budget,” he said.

Until the end of the month, one can hardly expect a significant increase in the dollar against the ruble, because the tax period is coming, when exporters sell their tax revenue to pay Russian taxes, the economist said.

“This traditionally strengthens the ruble, so until the end of the month, approximately until the 26th day, when the tax period ends, one can hardly expect a significant increase in the dollar exchange rate against the ruble, but there should not be a fall below $60,” said Mark Goykhman.

The exchange rate is gradually being normalized, the economist believes.

“The growth of the dollar is a return to the normalization of the exchange rate. Apparently, this will continue in the long term. Until the end of the week, the estimated range of the dollar, if there are no force majeure circumstances, is 60.5-61.5 rubles per dollar. Until the end of the month, more than a wide range – from 60 to 62 rubles per dollar. In the fall, there will most likely be further movement, and by the end of the year, the boundary of 70 rubles per dollar, which many people talk about, will be relevant, “Mark Goykhman predicts.

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