Lockdown or curfew has been implemented in many states to control the speed of the fast-spreading coronavirus (Covid-19) in the country. This will have an impact on business activities. At the same time, business activities have reduced by a quarter compared to the earlier of Covid-19. Japan’s brokerage firm Nomura said the economic impact of the decrease in activities would be minimal. Nomura has retained India’s economic growth forecast for this year. Also said that due to the lockdown, there will be a risk of it going down.
As of Nomura, as of April 25, 2021, Nomura India Business Reservation Index (NIBRI) recorded the highest weekly decline of 8.5 percent over the whole year and stood at 75.9. This is 24 percent less than the normal days before the epidemic. The firm said that the lockdown has affected the movement. This is affecting a large part of the economy like electricity demand, GST / EW bill, rail freight. However, the Japanese brokerage firm says that the effect of the second wave (Coronavirus) is still very low compared to the first wave.
The brokerage firm said the labor force participation rate still remains strong, but if states increase restrictions, the pace may remain weak next month. This may affect the GDP growth rate in the April-June 2021 quarter. According to Nomura, the economic impact is the reason for non-availability. Circumstances in other countries show that the relationship between movement is affected and growth is not very high. Parts of the economy such as manufacturing, agriculture, or work from home and online services should remain strong. Based on this, the brokerage firm has retained India’s growth forecast for 2021 at 11.5 percent.