Fitch Raises Russia’s GDP Growth Forecast from 3.3% to 3.7%

The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has again improved the forecast for the growth of the Russian economy in 2021 – from 3.3% to 3.7%. In March, the agency revised its forecast from 3% to 3.3%. Global GDP growth has also improved – from 6.1% to 6.3%.

“Fitch has raised its forecast for GDP growth (Russia – Ed.) For 2021 by 0.4 percentage points, to 3.7%. … We expect COVID-19 restrictions to remain very limited and activity will continue to be supported by a steady pace of vaccination, ”says Fitch’s World Economic Outlook (quoted from Prime).

Fitch expects Russia’s GDP growth in 2022 at 2.7%, the forecast remains unchanged. In 2023, the economy may grow by 2%. GDP decline rate in 2020 has been adjusted from 3.1% to 3%. The agency has increased its inflation forecast from 4.2% to 5.1% in 2021 and from 4% to 4.2% in 2022. It is assumed that the dollar will cost 73 rubles. by the end of 2021, and 72 rubles – at the end of 2022-2023.

Fitch also revised its forecast for oil prices. The agency expects a barrel of Brent to cost $ 63 in 2021. In the previous forecast, it was assumed that the price of a barrel will be $ 58.

Fitch Forecast for GDP Growth:

  • USA – 6.8% (+0.6 p.p.);
  • Eurozone – 5% (+0.3 p.p.);
  • Great Britain – 6.6% (+1.6 p.p.);
  • China – 8.4% (unchanged)

The forecast for GDP growth in developing countries, excluding China, has been reduced from 6% to 5.9%.

Rosstat earlier revised the data on the fall of Russia’s GDP in the first quarter from 1% to 0.7% in annual terms. The contraction of the economy in the first quarter in Rosstat was explained by the continuing coronavirus restrictions and low demand for energy resources in the world.

For more details on the statistics of Rosstat – in the material of “Kommersant” “GDP wants to grow, but cannot.”

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