The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has improved its forecast for the pace of Russian economic recovery in 2021. This year, Russia’s GDP will grow by 3.3%, according to the Bank’s Regional Economic Prospects report.
“(Russia’s) GDP is expected to grow 3.3% in 2021 and 3% in 2022 if the country manages to avoid the third wave of the pandemic. This will depend in part on accelerating vaccination, which has been rather slow, ”the EBRD said in a report. According to the bank’s forecast, this year’s growth will be facilitated by the relaxation of restrictions, which will support the recovery of domestic demand. In 2022, the growth rate of Russia’s GDP will amount to 3%, the EBRD predicts.
As the survey notes, the Russian economy outlasted 2020 comparatively well, despite the twin shocks caused by declining oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. It declined by a relatively moderate 3%.
“This partly reflects structural factors, including a large public sector and a relatively small services sector, but it also reflects the country’s strong macroeconomic position at the onset of the crisis, with significant reserves created in response to several years of sanctions,” the report explains.
In the second quarter of 2021, activity remained stable, and oil production should recover in response to the recent softening of production quotas, experts say. The report notes that this forecast is subject to a number of risks, not least geopolitical tensions, especially the risk of further sanctions, as well as the volatility of oil prices and demand.
Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted Russia’s GDP growth by 3.8% in 2021 and 2022.
About the decline in Russia’s GDP in 2020 and the forecasts of the Russian authorities – in the material “Kommersant” “The past GDP is not a friend to the future.”