Dollar exchange rate: why the ruble fails

The exchange rate of the Russian currency on June 4 significantly weakened against the dollar and the euro. Analysts interviewed by the Expert attributed this to a loss of investor interest in risky assets.

By the evening of June 4, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange strengthened to 69.29 rubles. This is 62.5 kopecks above the closing level on June 3. The euro has risen even more expensive: in a day it has grown to 78.42 rubles (an increase of 1.26 rubles). You can find out the dollar exchange rate online at Rambler / Finance.

The ruble-dollar pair is affected by the uncertainty about the OPEC + meeting. Against this background, August contracts for Brent crude fell to $ 39.47 per barrel (minus 0.8 percent). WTI crude oil fell 1.39 percent in July, to $ 36.77 a barrel.

“Expert” notes that the Russian stock indices also negatively affected the ruble. After the fuel spill in Norilsk, the shares of Norilsk Nickel fell seriously.
Alexey Kapitanov from Inbank considered the ruble to be the most negative factor for oil prices, which are losing the achieved figure of more than $ 40 per barrel. The analyst added that the European regulator has developed a ruble-euro pair, which has developed a new set of incentives to strengthen the EU currency.

“The internal agenda is also very critical for the national currency due to the situation with the oil spill in Norilsk,” he stressed.

According to Kapitanov, on June 5, the dollar will return within the framework of 69.90-70.30 rubles, and the European currency will cost 79.50-80.00 rubles.

Economist Anton Shabanov noted that long-term forecasts for the ruble exchange rate cannot be made now. So far, according to the expert, we are talking about slight fluctuations in the exchange rate, in the near future the ruble will become weaker, but not by much.
At the same time, Danske Bank analysts predicted an increase in investor demand for ruble assets due to falling yields on Eurobonds. According to them, in the next six months or a year, the European currency may fall to the ruble to 74.90 rubles per euro.
The weakening of the ruble occurs after the dollar has become cheaper than 69 rubles for the first time since March 6. According to Rambler, the chief expert of Alor Broker Alexei Antonov warned that at the end of the year, the dollar could rise to 90-100 rubles if oil prices continue to fall and a pandemic affects the economy.

The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Range Forecasting also admits that by December one can expect a dollar at 90 rubles if the pandemic lasts or its second wave begins.

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source: rambler