Rosstat published yesterday the quarterly data on consumer expectations of citizens in the third quarter of 2021: the aggregate consumer confidence index compared to the second quarter decreased by 1 percentage point (pp), to minus 19%. In the age groups 30–49 and over 50, there was a slight increase in consumer pessimism in the third quarter (minus 1 pp in both cases), young people (16–29 years old), on the contrary, showed a strong increase in optimism (plus 5 pp in both cases). NS.). The indicator takes into account the sub-indices of the occurred and expected changes in the personal financial situation, the occurred and expected changes in the economic situation in Russia and the favorable conditions for large purchases and is calculated according to the data of a traditional survey of 5.1 thousand people aged 16 years and older.
The dynamics of the components of the final index allows us to describe what is happening as the population’s awareness of the stability of the economic situation with the deterioration of expectations. Thus, the balance of assessments of actual changes in personal financial situation in comparison with the second quarter moved up by 1 pp and amounted to minus 15% (due to a decrease in the share of those who reported negative changes), the balance of assessments of changes in the economic situation of the country showed zero dynamics (minus 27%, as in the previous quarter). The balance of expectations in the near future of changes “for oneself” did not change (minus 8%), and “for the country” – worsened by 2 pp, to minus 14%. The latter was ensured by an increase in the share of “pessimists” by 3 pp, to minus 35%, due to respondents who previously believed the situation was unchanged: their share decreased from 51% in the second quarter to 48%, the share of “optimists” did not change (15% ).
Against this background, the perception by the population of the current moment as suitable for large purchases and savings demonstrates a rare discrepancy (see graph) – as the willingness to save increases, interest in large purchases falls. This may be caused both by the attenuation of demand recorded earlier by the industrial leading indices against the background of rising prices (“the moment has been missed”), and the expectation of growth in deposit rates, lagging behind inflation with a lag of more than six months, as well as the continuing development of the stock market by citizens.