Central Bank expects annual inflation to decrease in the fourth quarter

The Bank of Russia expects a gradual decrease in annual inflation in the country in the fourth quarter, until the fall inflation will “be on a plateau,” said Deputy Chairman of the regulator Alexei Zabotkin. Earlier, the Central Bank raised the key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 5.5% per annum, an increase by 0.5 percentage points instead of 0.25 percentage points was seen as a possible step in the fight against inflation.

“Inflation will be on a plateau on an annualized basis until the beginning of autumn, then in the fourth quarter it will begin to gradually decline. Taking into account the base effect, a slight increase in annual terms to the values ​​of May is probably possible. Again, forecasting summer inflation is a thankless task, given that the headline will depend on how the situation with the crop develops, “said Mr. Zabotkin on the sidelines of the Go global summit forum (quote from Prime).

He noted that the Central Bank is concerned not only with inflation, but also with the level of inflationary expectations. “From the May indicators, one can single out the rate of growth in prices for non-food products,” said the Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia. According to him, deflation in August and September will depend on the situation in the food market, not only in Russia, but also in the world.

On June 11, the Central Bank raised the rate to 5.5%. The chairman of the regulator Elvira Nabiullina said that the rise in inflation in the country is of increasing concern. According to her, the acceleration of price growth was influenced, in particular, by the soft monetary policy. She said that the Central Bank will continue to raise the rate due to the continuing rise in inflation.

For more information about the rate hike, see Kommersant’s article “Shire step”.

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